News Summary
The news release dated December 21, 2025, confirms that Allied Gold has commenced ore processing at the Sadiola Phase 1 expansion in Mali. The project was delivered on schedule (Q4 2025) and involves a new comminution circuit allowing the plant to treat up to 60% fresh ore at a rate of 5.7 Mtpa. Additionally, the company provided a production update for Q4 2025, expecting 113,000 ounces (60,000 from Sadiola), which puts the company on track to meet its full-year 2025 guidance of 375,000 ounces. Studies for a capital-efficient “Modular” Phase 2 expansion at Sadiola are nearing completion, with an update expected in early 2026.
Material Impact
– Operational Milestone: Delivering the Sadiola Phase 1 expansion on schedule is a significant validation of management’s ability to execute in a difficult jurisdiction (Mali). The transition to processing more fresh ore is critical for sustaining production levels as oxide resources deplete.
– Production Confirmation: The Q4 2025 production estimate of 113,000 ounces is a 30% increase over Q3 (87,020 oz), though it sits at the lower end of the 118,000-122,000 range suggested in the October 2025 investor presentation.
– Guidance vs. Reality: While the company is meeting its 2025 annual guidance, the AISC remains high ($2,092 in Q3 2025). The Phase 1 expansion is expected to lower unit costs, but the true impact will not be visible until the Q1 2026 reporting cycle.
– Strategic Shift: The mention of a “Modular Phase 2” suggests a shift toward capital efficiency (likely lower upfront Capex) compared to the original $400 million feasibility study plant. This indicates a more conservative approach to capital allocation.
Catalysts
– Phase 2 Expansion Study (Early 2026): Details on the “Modular” approach will determine the capital intensity and debt requirements for the next three years.
– Kurmuk Progress Update: First gold at the Ethiopian project is targeted for mid-2026; any logistical delays in the next 6 months would be severely negative.
– Mali Political Stability: Despite management’s “business as usual” rhetoric in transcripts, fuel supply disruptions and potential changes in the Malian mining code remain systemic risks.
– 2025 Reserve and Resource Update (February 2026): Crucial for verifying mine life extensions at Agbaou and the impact of Oume on Bonikro.
Materiality Conclusion
The news is Material – Positive as it marks the successful completion of a major growth project on time. This de-risks the Sadiola production profile for 2026. However, it is not a “Game Changer” because the high AISC and geopolitical overhang still require the company to prove it can translate higher production into significant free cash flow.
