News Summary
On December 18, 2025, Aya Gold & Silver announced it has filed the National Instrument 43-101 Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) technical report for its Boumadine Polymetallic Project in Morocco. The filing formally documents the PEA results that were initially announced on November 4, 2025.
The key highlights confirmed in the report include a post-tax Net Present Value (NPV) at a 5% discount rate of $1.5 billion, a 47% Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and a 2.1-year payback period. These figures are based on a “Base Case” using metal prices of $2,800/oz gold, $30/oz silver, $1.20/lb zinc, and $1.00/lb lead. The PEA outlines an initial capital cost of $446 million for an 11-year mine life.
Material Impact
The news of filing the technical report is a procedural step and has a neutral to slightly positive routine impact. The material, value-driving information was released on November 4, 2025, and has already been substantially priced into the stock, which has since traded up to new 52-week highs. This filing simply formalizes those results and provides the detailed technical backup, adding a layer of confirmation but no new surprises.
The more significant assessment comes from placing this news in the context of the company’s full operational picture.
– Boumadine’s Potential: The PEA results are transformative, outlining a path for Aya to become a major producer. The project’s economics are robust, with a high NPV-to-capex ratio. However, as critical analysts, we must note the high base-case metal price assumptions ($2,800 gold, $30 silver). The project’s NPV drops significantly to $657 million at more conservative prices ($2,100 gold, $22.5 silver), highlighting a strong dependency on a bullish commodity cycle. The company has now launched a massive 360,000-meter drill program to advance Boumadine to a feasibility study by late 2027.
– Zgounder’s Reality: While Boumadine represents the future, Zgounder’s performance dictates the present. The Q3 2025 results and earnings call transcript reveal a mixed picture. Throughput at the newly expanded plant is exceptional, running well above its 2,700 tpd nameplate capacity and trending towards 3,700-3,800 tpd. Recoveries are also strong at 92.5%. However, management has acknowledged persistent challenges with grade control in the open pit, which has kept cash costs elevated (Q3 cash cost was $20.79/oz vs. guidance of $15.00-$17.50/oz). As per the Q3 call, management expects grade improvement in Q1 2026. This operational shortfall is currently being masked by record-high silver prices, which have allowed for strong margins and operating cash flow ($22.4 million in Q3). Any reversion in the silver price would quickly expose these higher costs.
– Short-Seller Report: On September 25, 2025, the company refuted a short-seller report, which caused a single-day stock price drop of over 20%. While the stock has since recovered and made new highs, the existence of such a report points to market skepticism that could re-emerge if operational issues at Zgounder are not resolved.
In summary, filing the Boumadine PEA report is routine. The company’s narrative is successfully shifting towards the enormous potential of its second asset. However, the immediate financial health and ability to fund Boumadine’s development hinge on optimizing Zgounder. The market is forward-looking, but any stumbles in Zgounder’s execution, particularly if silver prices pull back, present a material risk.
Catalysts
– Updated Zgounder Mine Plan: Management has guided for an updated resource model and mine plan for Zgounder by the end of December 2025. This is the most critical near-term catalyst. It will provide clarity on life-of-mine production, cost structure, and how the company plans to manage the now larger processing capacity. Any disappointment in this plan could negatively impact the stock.
– Q4 2025 Operational Results: To be released in early 2026, these results will be crucial for assessing if the company meets the low end of its 2025 production guidance (5.0-5.3 Moz Ag) and if any progress has been made on lowering cash costs and improving open pit grade.
– Boumadine Drill Results: The company has commenced a massive 360,000-meter drill program. A steady flow of drill results is expected, which will be key to de-risking the project and potentially expanding the resource ahead of the feasibility study.
Materiality Conclusion
The filing of the Boumadine PEA technical report is Routine – Positive. It solidifies the potential of a company-making asset. However, the market has already digested this information. The company’s valuation is now a balance between Boumadine’s future promise and the immediate operational risks at the flagship Zgounder mine. The upcoming updated mine plan for Zgounder carries more weight for the stock’s near-term direction than this procedural filing.
