News Summary
On December 8, 2025, Lundin Gold provided its production and cost guidance for 2026, along with a strategic three-year outlook for 2026-2028.
– 2026 Guidance: Gold production is forecast to be between 475,000 and 525,000 ounces. Cash operating costs are guided at $900-$960 per ounce sold, with All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) expected between $1,110 and $1,170 per ounce sold. This guidance is based on an assumed gold price of $4,000/oz.
– Three-Year Outlook (2026-2028): The company expects to maintain production levels of 475,000 to 525,000 ounces annually. Mill throughput is anticipated to average 5,500 tonnes per day (tpd).
– Exploration: A substantial exploration budget of $85 million is planned for 2026, targeting 133,000 metres of drilling. This includes near-mine, regional, and resource conversion drilling.
– Strategic Initiatives: The company anticipates a development decision for the Fruta del Norte South (FDNS) project in the first half of 2026 and an investment decision on a further mine-to-mill throughput expansion beyond 5,500 tpd in the second half of 2026.
– Shareholder Returns: The company reiterated its dividend policy of a fixed quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share plus a variable component.
Material Impact
This guidance and outlook release is materially positive as it provides a clear, well-funded roadmap that reinforces the company’s growth trajectory, building upon a year of exceptional operational and exploration success.
– Production Continuity: The 2026 production guidance of 475,000-525,000 oz is consistent with the outlook provided a year prior (December 9, 2024), confirming operational stability and predictability at the Fruta del Norte (FDN) mine. The planned increase in mill throughput to 5,500 tpd underpins this sustained production level.
– Cost Increase Context: At first glance, the 2026 AISC guidance of $1,110-$1,170/oz appears to be a significant increase from the previous 2026 outlook of $950-$1,020/oz. However, this is primarily driven by a much higher gold price assumption ($4,000/oz vs. $2,500/oz previously). As confirmed in the Q3 2025 earnings call, higher gold prices directly increase costs through royalties and profit-sharing agreements in Ecuador. While AISC is higher, the implied cash flow and margins at a $4,000 gold price are substantially greater, making this a net positive for profitability.
– Aggressive Exploration: The $85 million exploration budget for 2026 is a massive statement of intent, nearly double the ~$47 million budgeted for 2025. This aggressive investment, funded entirely by internal cash flow, is a direct result of the spectacular near-mine (FDNS) and porphyry (Sandia, Trancaloma) drill results throughout 2025. It demonstrates management’s high confidence in delivering significant resource growth and making new discoveries.
– Clear Growth Catalysts: The release provides firm timelines for key value-driving decisions: H1 2026 for the FDNS development and H2 2026 for further plant expansion. This transforms exploration success into a tangible production growth pipeline.
– Shareholder Returns: By reaffirming the robust dividend policy alongside aggressive growth spending, the company signals that its cash generation is so strong it can do both without straining the balance sheet. This contrasts sharply with peers who often must choose between growth and returns.
In summary, the news solidifies Lundin Gold’s position as a best-in-class operator that is successfully transitioning from a single-asset cash cow into a district-scale exploration and growth story, all while maintaining top-tier shareholder returns.
Catalysts
– Immediate: Final 2025 drill results from the FDNS conversion and FDN East exploration programs. The Q3 2025 earnings call on November 8, 2025, indicated these results would be released in the “next couple of weeks.”
– 3-6 Months:
– Q4 and Full-Year 2025 financial and operational results (expected February 2026).
– An initial Mineral Reserve estimate for FDNS, which the company is targeting for Q1 2026. This is a critical step in de-risking the project.
– The formal development decision for FDNS, expected in H1 2026.
– An initial Mineral Resource estimate for the Bonza Sur deposit, which was anticipated by mid-year 2025 in a previous outlook. An update on its status is expected.
– Ongoing drill results from the very large 2026 exploration program, particularly from the promising copper-gold porphyry targets.
Materiality Conclusion
The news is Material – Positive. It provides a detailed and confident three-year outlook that confirms sustained high production levels, outlines a massively expanded and fully funded exploration program, and sets clear deadlines for key growth decisions. While the guided AISC for 2026 has increased, it is a direct function of a much higher assumed gold price, which will result in significantly expanded margins and cash flow. This release provides investors with a clear and compelling vision for value creation through both operational excellence and aggressive, targeted exploration.
