News Summary
The most recent news (December 18, 2025) announces that the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) has significantly increased its non-binding Letters of Interest (LoI) for Graphite One’s supply chain to a total of $2.07 billion USD. This is an upsize from previous indications of $895 million. Specifically, the LoI for the Graphite Creek mine in Alaska increased to $670 million, and the LoI for the Ohio manufacturing plant jumped to $1.4 billion with a 15-year repayment term. Additionally, news from December 16, 2025, confirmed the presence of high-value magnet and Heavy Rare Earth Elements (REEs) at the Graphite Creek deposit, with 85% of the REEs found in garnet material being the highly sought-after magnet or heavy varieties.
Material Impact
This news is materially positive because it demonstrates a Tier-1 level of US government backing for the project as a matter of national security. However, as a risk-averse analyst, the following “red flags” must be noted:
– The $2.07 billion is non-binding. It is an indication of interest, not a committed loan.
– The company states it is in discussions for the “remaining 30% of capital costs.” Based on a total project capital cost of roughly $5 billion (from the April 2025 BFS), the equity or alternative financing gap remains nearly $1.5 billion to $3 billion.
– The project is still in the “Resource/Feasibility” stage. First production for the Ohio plant is targeted for 2028 and the mine for 2030. This is a long-dated, high-risk timeline.
– The REE discovery, while promising, is preliminary. Extraction methods have not yet been proven or costed into the BFS.
Catalysts
– Formal Application to EXIM: The company expects this in 2026; any acceleration of this timeline would be a catalyst.
– REE Testing: Results from the 2026 testing program with a U.S. National Lab to determine if REEs can be economically extracted from garnets.
– Capital Raising: With only $3.58 million in cash as of September 30, 2025, the company will need to raise equity shortly to maintain operations, which will lead to further dilution.
Materiality Conclusion
The news is material because it validates the project’s scale and strategic importance to the United States’ “Energy Dominance” agenda. The jump from $895M to $2.07B in potential debt coverage significantly de-risks the construction phase, provided the company can find a strategic equity partner to cover the remaining 30%.
